The measles outbreak impacting Texas and New Mexico is predicted to escalate, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). With hundreds already infected and dozens hospitalized, the CDC issued a Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory late last week, warning of the virus’s continued rapid spread.
Texas health officials have confirmed 223 measles cases within the state as of Tuesday, with 29 hospitalizations and one fatality. Additional cases have been reported in other states this year, including New Mexico, New York, Alaska, and Florida.
The Texas outbreak, originating in mid-January, predominantly affects unvaccinated individuals within Mennonite communities in rural western Texas. Tragically, an unvaccinated school-aged child in Texas succumbed to the preventable disease in late February, marking the first U.S. measles death in a decade. The outbreak has extended to New Mexico, with 33 cases reported, including one recent death currently under investigation.
Measles’s high contagiousness allows swift transmission in communities with low vaccination rates. Herd immunity, requiring approximately 94% vaccination coverage, is crucial to prevent widespread outbreaks. Early in the Texas outbreak, health officials voiced concerns about potentially hundreds of infections, a number likely underestimated. Just a month ago, this outbreak was already the largest in Texas in nearly 30 years.
While measles was declared eliminated in the U.S. 25 years ago, outbreaks can occur in under-vaccinated communities, often initiated by infected travelers returning from regions where measles is endemic. Despite high national vaccination rates maintaining a low overall U.S. risk, the CDC anticipates a worsening situation in Texas and New Mexico, describing the outbreak’s expansion as “rapid.”
Thirteen states have reported measles cases this year. Oklahoma recently confirmed two cases linked to the Texas and New Mexico clusters. While other reported cases appear travel-related, the potential for further outbreaks remains.
With 285 measles cases reported nationwide in 2024, the 2025 total is poised to surpass this figure. It remains uncertain whether 2025 will eclipse the severity of 2019, which saw significant outbreaks in New York that threatened the U.S.’s measles elimination status.
These outbreaks have unfolded under the leadership of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Despite expressing some pro-vaccine sentiments since assuming office, Kennedy has a history of disseminating misinformation about vaccine safety, including the MMR vaccine. He has also recently promoted scientifically unsupported treatments for measles, such as cod liver oil.
The CDC unequivocally states that the MMR vaccine remains the most effective preventative measure against measles.
