The hype around AI PCs has been substantial in 2024, but has the reality lived up to the promise? A recent analysis from TrendForce suggests the significant increase in laptop sales this year is primarily attributed to Windows 11 updates, not the integration of AI capabilities.
TrendForce’s report states, “The impact of AI-integrated notebooks on the overall market remains limited for now. However, AI features are expected to naturally integrate into notebook specifications as brands gradually incorporate them, resulting in a steady rise in the penetration rates of AI notebooks.” While the report doesn’t explicitly define “AI-integrated notebooks,” it likely refers to Copilot+ PCs, equipped with powerful neural processing units (NPUs) for local AI processing.
A bar chart showing PC sales.
Several factors contribute to this trend. TrendForce highlights the dominance of “aggressive promotions” and “entry-level models” in the North American consumer market. Copilot+ PCs, priced at $999 and above, target a premium segment, which isn’t currently the driving force behind consumer Windows PC sales. To justify the higher price point of AI PCs, manufacturers need to effectively communicate the tangible benefits of AI features to consumers, which hasn’t happened yet.
Most users currently rely on cloud-based AI tools like ChatGPT or find their existing hardware adequate for tasks like video calls and document editing. While professionals might benefit from the efficiency gains offered by AI PCs for tasks like video editing, the average user perceives limited immediate value, reducing the incentive to upgrade.
The privacy concerns and subsequent delays surrounding Recall, the flagship AI feature for Copilot+ PCs, further hampered adoption. Its rollout, nearly six months behind schedule, undoubtedly impacted initial enthusiasm.
Despite AI not being the marketing triumph Microsoft envisioned, the overall increase in PC sales is positive. Global notebook shipments are projected to grow by another 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025. The impending end-of-support for Windows 10 will further compel businesses and consumers to upgrade.
The phasing out of Windows 10 is a key driver of new laptop purchases. Many older systems lack the hardware requirements for Windows 11, such as TPM 2.0, necessitating replacements. This has fueled demand for non-AI laptops compatible with the newer OS. Businesses and consumers prioritize cost-effective models over AI-equipped PCs when upgrading for compliance or functionality.
As AI PC technology matures and software optimization for NPUs improves, coupled with potential price reductions, their appeal may increase. However, the current focus remains on the essential transition to Windows 11, relegating AI advancements to a secondary consideration. This disparity underscores the gap between industry innovation and consumer needs, with the latter prioritizing affordability and core functionality over speculative advancements.
