The first-ever space weather preparedness exercise involving multiple US agencies revealed critical gaps in forecasting capabilities, potentially jeopardizing vital systems in the face of a severe solar storm. The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) task force, comprising agencies like NOAA and DHS, conducted the exercise to assess the US government’s readiness. The findings, detailed in a recent report, highlight significant shortcomings in space weather prediction.
The exercise, held at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and a FEMA site in May 2024, simulated a series of solar events impacting Earth and space systems. These included radio blackouts, GPS disruptions, power grid failures, heightened radiation exposure for astronauts and satellites, and loss of satellite communication.
One module projected a hypothetical scenario in 2028, with an active solar region facing Earth and Artemis astronauts en route to and on the lunar surface. Participants were challenged to evaluate their agency’s existing policies and protocols for a major space weather event.
Coincidentally, a powerful G5 geomagnetic storm, the strongest in over two decades, occurred during the exercise on May 10, 2024. This storm disrupted power grids, triggered stunning auroras globally, and drastically increased atmospheric density in low Earth orbit, impacting satellites.
While space weather forecasters monitor solar activity and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), predicting their impact remains challenging. The true impact of a CME is only discernible approximately 30 minutes prior to its arrival, when its magnetic field orientation becomes clear. As Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center, previously explained, “We only understand the CME’s composition, magnetic strength, speed, and Earth-directed trajectory when it’s just 1 million miles away, giving us only 15 to 45 minutes’ notice.”
The report identifies the unpredictability of CME impacts as the biggest forecasting hurdle. It recommends investing in advanced space weather satellites, deploying more monitoring sensors, and fostering collaboration with international partners and the private sector.
The report emphasizes the critical need for ongoing space weather preparedness: “An extreme event could severely impact our critical infrastructure and national security. Like earthquake, hurricane, and cyberattack preparedness, our nation must act before a major space weather event occurs.”
