Apple has been banking on Apple Intelligence to boost iPhone upgrade rates. Early reports suggest this strategy might be gaining traction. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) indicates that users are trading in their iPhones for newer models slightly faster. This is a welcome shift, as customers have been holding onto their devices longer in recent years.
CIRP’s latest Apple Report reveals that a larger percentage of iPhone buyers upgraded from relatively newer phones in the last quarter of 2024. Specifically, 36% of recent iPhone purchasers reported owning their previous phone for two years or less, compared to 31% the year prior.
While it’s tempting to directly link this trend to Apple Intelligence, introduced with the iPhone 16 series, other factors are likely at play. However, Apple’s prominent showcasing of the AI software in recent advertising campaigns suggests it’s a significant contributor.
It’s crucial to remember that surveys like CIRP’s don’t reflect actual sales figures, which haven’t been exceptionally strong for Apple lately. For instance, iPhone revenue in the December quarter was $69.1 billion, a slight dip from the $69.7 billion reported the previous year.
Despite this, several factors point to a potential upswing. Firstly, the December quarter marked the first time the entire iPhone 16 lineup was available following its late September launch. Secondly, Apple Intelligence is still being rolled out incrementally through software updates, with further enhancements expected. This staggered release could mean some potential buyers are waiting for the full suite of features before upgrading.
Interestingly, Samsung experienced its first phone sales improvement since 2018, largely attributed to its new AI features, which launched months before Apple’s. This suggests Apple’s AI-driven upgrade cycle might simply be delayed.
Beyond Apple Intelligence, the anticipated arrival of the iPhone 17 Air this fall, touted as Apple’s thinnest iPhone yet, adds to the optimism. Apple’s continued focus on slimmer designs, including potential foldable models, could further fuel iPhone sales in the long run.
In conclusion, while it’s too soon to definitively credit Apple Intelligence for the slight increase in iPhone upgrades, it’s likely a contributing factor. Combined with other factors like staggered software releases, competitor trends, and upcoming hardware innovations, the future of iPhone sales appears cautiously optimistic.
